Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? — live odds

"Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?" is trading at a 3% implied probability, with YES at 3¢ and NO at 97¢. $5.3M has changed hands so far, $979 of it in the past 24 hours, and the market is scheduled to resolve by January 1, 2027. PolyWatch tracks every odds move, whale trade and volume spike on this crypto market in real time.

implied probability

YES 3¢NO 97¢

recent price

+77¢ over the window

+77¢

24h change

$979

24h volume

$5.3M

total volume

Jan 1, 2027

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

Odds swing
0¢ → 96¢ (+95.9¢ in 15 min)
3m ago
High volatility
±45.9¢ swing band
16m ago
High volatility
±32.3¢ swing band
31m ago
High volatility
±63.5¢ swing band
47m ago
High volatility
±48.8¢ swing band
1h ago
High volatility
±75.4¢ swing band
1h ago
Odds swing
77¢ → 0¢ (-76.8¢ in 15 min)
1h ago
High volatility
±64.5¢ swing band
2h ago
High volatility
±56.3¢ swing band
2h ago
High volatility
±56.5¢ swing band
2h ago

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any wallet labeled as belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto on Arkham’s Intel Explorer shows an “Outflow” or “Swaps” transaction at any time between January 9, 2026, 1:00 PM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is Arkham’s Intel Explorer, specifically the entity page for Satoshi Nakamoto available at https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/satoshi-nakamoto If Arkham becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible sources.