Which outcome is favored for Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...??

The market currently favors October 15 at 94% implied probability (YES trading at 94¢).

How much has been traded on Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...??

$2.8M has been traded across 6 outcome markets, $90K of it in the last 24 hours.

When do these markets resolve?

The earliest outcome market is scheduled to resolve by October 10, 2026.

Event odds table

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...? — live odds

6 outcomes$2.8M traded$90K · 24hresolves by October 10, 2026

Live Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...? odds: October 15 leads the field at 94% implied probability, ahead of October 31 (83%) and November 30 (60%). All 6 outcome markets are ranked below by the odds real money is pricing, with $2.8M traded ($90K in the last 24 hours) and the field resolving by October 10, 2026. Prices refresh every few minutes as trades land.

The market's call

October 15 94%

implied probability (94¢ YES) — the most-likely outcome of 6

Full market details →

1October 15

94%94¢ · $33K 24h 2October 31

83%83¢ · $21K 24h 3November 30

60%60¢ · $12K 24h 4December 31

60%60¢ · $18K 24h 5October 9

—— · $5K 24h 6November 15

—— · $2K 24h

About this event

Which outcome is favored for Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...??: The market currently favors October 15 at 94% implied probability (YES trading at 94¢).
How much has been traded on Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...??: $2.8M has been traded across 6 outcome markets, $90K of it in the last 24 hours.
When do these markets resolve?: The earliest outcome market is scheduled to resolve by October 10, 2026.

Get alerts on every outcome

PolyWatch watches all 6 outcome markets 24/7 and pushes whale trades, odds swings and volume spikes the moment they land. Free on iOS and Android.