Which outcome is favored for US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…??

The market currently favors December 31 at 15% implied probability (YES trading at 14¢).

How much has been traded on US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…??

$4.5M has been traded across 3 outcome markets, $99K of it in the last 24 hours.

When do these markets resolve?

The earliest outcome market is scheduled to resolve by November 1, 2026.

Event odds table

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…? — live odds

3 outcomes$4.5M traded$99K · 24hresolves by November 1, 2026

Live US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…? odds: December 31 leads the field at 15% implied probability, ahead of November 30 (8%) and October 31 (2%). All 3 outcome markets are ranked below by the odds real money is pricing, with $4.5M traded ($99K in the last 24 hours) and the field resolving by November 1, 2026. Prices refresh every few minutes as trades land.

The market's call

December 31 15%

implied probability (14¢ YES) — the most-likely outcome of 3

Full market details →

1December 31

15%14¢ · $9K 24h 2November 30

8%8¢ · $5K 24h 3October 31

2%2¢ · $85K 24h

About this event

Which outcome is favored for US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…??: The market currently favors December 31 at 15% implied probability (YES trading at 14¢).
How much has been traded on US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…??: $4.5M has been traded across 3 outcome markets, $99K of it in the last 24 hours.
When do these markets resolve?: The earliest outcome market is scheduled to resolve by November 1, 2026.

Get alerts on every outcome

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