Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on October 7? — final odds

Resolved YES · October 7, 2026Final price 100¢ YES — the market gave this a 100% implied probability.

"Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on October 7?" resolved YES on October 7, 2026 at a final price of 100¢ YES — a 100% implied probability — after $117K in total trading volume. The full odds history and the radar signals that moved it are below.

100%

implied probability

YES 100¢NO 0¢

recent price

—

24h change

$85K

24h volume

$117K

total volume

Oct 7, 2026

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

High volatility
±26.1¢ swing band
7d ago
Odds swing
3¢ → 99¢ (+95.7¢ in 15 min)
7d ago
High volatility
±42.3¢ swing band
7d ago
High volatility
±28.9¢ swing band
7d ago
Odds swing
100¢ → 6¢ (-93.5¢ in 15 min)
7d ago
conviction signal
7d ago
High volatility
±27.4¢ swing band
7d ago
Volume spike
$2,455 traded — 59.8× the average
7d ago
Volume spike
$145 traded — 3.7× the average
7d ago
High volatility
±40.6¢ swing band
7d ago

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT closing at 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.

Quick answers

How did "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on October 7?" resolve?

This market resolved YES on October 7, 2026. Its final traded price was 100¢ YES.

What did the market predict?

Before settling, the market priced the YES outcome at 100¢ — an implied probability of 100%. Comparing final odds with outcomes across markets is how prediction-market accuracy is measured.