Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch? — live odds

Part of Extended FDV above ___ one day after launch?· see all 7 outcomes →📲 Open in app

"Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch?" is trading at a 20% implied probability, with YES at 20¢ and NO at 81¢. $1.2M has changed hands so far, $330 of it in the past 24 hours, and the market is scheduled to resolve by January 1, 2027. PolyWatch tracks every odds move, whale trade and volume spike on this crypto market in real time.

20%

implied probability

YES 20¢NO 81¢

recent price

-65¢ over the window

-65¢

24h change

$330

24h volume

$1.2M

total volume

Jan 1, 2027

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

High volatility
±31.2¢ swing band
14m ago
Odds swing
9¢ → 43¢ (+34¢ in 15 min)
14m ago
High volatility
±31.5¢ swing band
29m ago
High volatility
±54.5¢ swing band
44m ago
Odds swing
16¢ → 99¢ (+83¢ in 15 min)
44m ago
High volatility
±26.6¢ swing band
59m ago
Odds swing
43¢ → 9¢ (-34¢ in 15 min)
59m ago
High volatility
±16.5¢ swing band
5h ago
Odds swing
23¢ → 75¢ (+52¢ in 15 min)
5h ago
High volatility
±52.3¢ swing band
5h ago

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Extended's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Extended (https://x.com/extendedapp) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".