
Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026? — final odds
"Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026?" resolved on August 31, 2026 at a final price of — YES — a 0% implied probability — after $380K in total trading volume. The full odds history and the radar signals that moved it are below.
0%
implied probability
recent price
—
24h change
$90K
24h volume
$380K
total volume
Aug 31, 2026
resolves
Radar activity on this market
Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.
- 106d ago
High volatility
±28.2¢ swing band
- 106d ago
Odds swing
3¢ → 27¢ (+24¢ in 15 min)
- 106d ago
High volatility
±9.5¢ swing band
- 106d ago
Odds swing
94¢ → 36¢ (-58¢ in 15 min)
- 106d ago
High volatility
±49.5¢ swing band
- 106d ago
Odds swing
3¢ → 99¢ (+96¢ in 15 min)
- 106d ago
High volatility
±38.9¢ swing band
How this market resolves
On June 9, 2026, Anthropic released the Mythos-class model Claude Fable 5. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic releases the next Mythos-class model and makes it available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Any model whose official name includes “Mythos,” or that Anthropic officially describes as a “Mythos-class” model or similar, will qualify for this market’s resolution. For this market to resolve to "Yes," the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public. If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Quick answers
How did "Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026?" resolve?
This market ended on August 31, 2026 with a final traded price of — YES (0% implied probability).
What did the market predict?
Before settling, the market priced the YES outcome at — — an implied probability of 0%. Comparing final odds with outcomes across markets is how prediction-market accuracy is measured.
How much was traded on this market?
$380K was traded over the market's lifetime.
Get alerted when this market moves
Eleven detectors watch this market around the clock. The app pings you on the whale trade, the odds swing, the volume spike — the moment they happen.
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