Will 2026 be the fifth-hottest year on record? — live odds

Part of Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?· see all 6 outcomes →📲 Open in app

"Will 2026 be the fifth-hottest year on record?" is trading at a 0% implied probability, with YES at 0¢ and NO at 100¢. $902K has changed hands so far, $33K of it in the past 24 hours, and the market is scheduled to resolve by March 2, 2027. PolyWatch tracks every odds move, whale trade and volume spike on this science market in real time.

implied probability

YES 0¢NO 100¢

recent price

-10¢ over the window

-10¢

24h change

$33K

24h volume

$902K

total volume

Mar 2, 2027

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

High volatility
±24.9¢ swing band
12d ago
Odds swing
100¢ → 13¢ (-86.6¢ in 15 min)
12d ago
High volatility
±26.5¢ swing band
12d ago
High volatility
±45.5¢ swing band
12d ago
High volatility
±39.2¢ swing band
12d ago
Odds swing
100¢ → 8¢ (-92¢ in 15 min)
12d ago
High volatility
±25.9¢ swing band
12d ago
Odds swing
100¢ → 10¢ (-90.2¢ in 15 min)
12d ago
High volatility
±40.2¢ swing band
12d ago
Odds swing
9¢ → 100¢ (+90.8¢ in 15 min)
12d ago

How this market resolves

This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data. Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc. If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies. This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.

Quick answers

What are the current odds of "Will 2026 be the fifth-hottest year on record?"?

The market currently prices YES at 0¢ and NO at 100¢, an implied probability of 0% that the answer is yes.

When does this market resolve?

This market is scheduled to resolve by March 2, 2027. The stated resolution source is https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt.