Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? — live odds
"Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?" is trading at a 2% implied probability, with YES at 2¢ and NO at 98¢. $797K has changed hands so far, $2K of it in the past 24 hours, and the market is scheduled to resolve by January 1, 2027. PolyWatch tracks every odds move, whale trade and volume spike on this tech market in real time.
2%
implied probability
recent price
0¢ over the window
0¢
24h change
$2K
24h volume
$797K
total volume
Jan 1, 2027
resolves
Radar activity on this market
Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.
- 16d ago
High volatility
±40.7¢ swing band
- 16d ago
Odds swing
11¢ → 66¢ (+55¢ in 15 min)
- 16d ago
High volatility
±27.9¢ swing band
- 16d ago
Odds swing
11¢ → 99¢ (+88¢ in 15 min)
- 16d ago
High volatility
±25.1¢ swing band
- 16d ago
Odds swing
11¢ → 66¢ (+55¢ in 15 min)
- 33d ago
complete set arb
sum: 0.967 · edge: 0.023
- 73d ago
High volatility
±15.3¢ swing band
- 73d ago
High volatility
±20.4¢ swing band
- 74d ago
High volatility
±7.5¢ swing band
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31, 2026, as of market close. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Quick answers
What are the current odds of "Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?"?
The market currently prices YES at 2¢ and NO at 98¢, an implied probability of 2% that the answer is yes.
When does this market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve by January 1, 2027.
How much has been traded on this market?
$797K has been traded in total, $2K of it in the last 24 hours.
Prices as of . Informational only — PolyWatch is read-only analytics, not financial advice.
Get alerted when this market moves
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