Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? — live odds

Part of Highest grossing movie in 2026?· see all 14 outcomes →📲 Open in app

"Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?" is trading at a 4% implied probability, with YES at 4¢ and NO at 96¢. $1.1M has changed hands so far, $3K of it in the past 24 hours, and the market is scheduled to resolve by January 8, 2027. PolyWatch tracks every odds move, whale trade and volume spike on this culture market in real time.

implied probability

YES 4¢NO 96¢

recent price

+51¢ over the window

+51¢

24h change

$3K

24h volume

$1.1M

total volume

Jan 8, 2027

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

High volatility
±36.6¢ swing band
11m ago
Odds swing
85¢ → 95¢ (+10.1¢ in 15 min)
11m ago
High volatility
±24.6¢ swing band
27m ago
Odds swing
85¢ → 1¢ (-83.7¢ in 15 min)
27m ago
High volatility
±23.9¢ swing band
43m ago
Odds swing
95¢ → 63¢ (-32.1¢ in 15 min)
43m ago
High volatility
±44.6¢ swing band
58m ago
Volume spike
$50 traded — 93.7× the average
1h ago
High volatility
±47.7¢ swing band
1h ago
Odds swing
95¢ → 0¢ (-94.7¢ in 15 min)
1h ago

How this market resolves

This market will resolve according to the title of the film with the highest 2026 gross according to the "Gross" column on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/2026/?grossesOption=calendarGrosses once data for December 31 is made available. Note: This market is about the movie's domestic calendar gross in 2026 - dates outside of 2026 will not count toward this movie's gross. In the event of an exact tie the film that comes first alphabetically will be considered the winner. If there is no final data available by January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

Quick answers

What are the current odds of "Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?"?

The market currently prices YES at 4¢ and NO at 96¢, an implied probability of 4% that the answer is yes.

When does this market resolve?

This market is scheduled to resolve by January 8, 2027. The stated resolution source is https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/2026/?grossesOption=calendarGrosses.