Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? — live odds

Part of Highest grossing movie in 2026?· see all 14 outcomes →📲 Open in app

"Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?" is trading at a 95% implied probability, with YES at 95¢ and NO at 5¢. $687K has changed hands so far, $38 of it in the past 24 hours, and the market is scheduled to resolve by January 8, 2027. PolyWatch tracks every odds move, whale trade and volume spike on this culture market in real time.

95%

implied probability

YES 95¢NO 5¢

recent price

-1¢ over the window

-1¢

24h change

$38

24h volume

$687K

total volume

Jan 8, 2027

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

High volatility
±26.1¢ swing band
15m ago
Odds swing
98¢ → 47¢ (-51¢ in 15 min)
15m ago
High volatility
±26.8¢ swing band
30m ago
Odds swing
47¢ → 97¢ (+50¢ in 15 min)
30m ago
High volatility
±14.7¢ swing band
45m ago
High volatility
±21.8¢ swing band
1h ago
High volatility
±37.3¢ swing band
1h ago
Volume spike
$14 traded — 649.1× the average
1h ago
Volume spike
$6 traded — 268.6× the average
2h ago
High volatility
±21.3¢ swing band
2h ago

How this market resolves

This market will resolve according to the title of the film with the highest 2026 gross according to the "Gross" column on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/2026/?grossesOption=calendarGrosses once data for December 31 is made available. Note: This market is about the movie's domestic calendar gross in 2026 - dates outside of 2026 will not count toward this movie's gross. In the event of an exact tie the film that comes first alphabetically will be considered the winner. If there is no final data available by January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

Quick answers

What are the current odds of "Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?"?

The market currently prices YES at 95¢ and NO at 5¢, an implied probability of 95% that the answer is yes.

When does this market resolve?

This market is scheduled to resolve by January 8, 2027. The stated resolution source is https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/2026/?grossesOption=calendarGrosses.