Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 October 5-11? — final odds

This market has ended · October 12, 2026Final price 95¢ YES — the market gave this a 95% implied probability.

"Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 October 5-11?" resolved on October 12, 2026 at a final price of 95¢ YES — a 95% implied probability — after $142K in total trading volume. The full odds history and the radar signals that moved it are below.

95%

implied probability

YES 95¢NO 5¢

recent price

—

24h change

$12K

24h volume

$142K

total volume

Oct 12, 2026

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

High volatility
±23.9¢ swing band
1d ago
Odds swing
4¢ → 87¢ (+82.7¢ in 15 min)
1d ago
High volatility
±40.6¢ swing band
1d ago
High volatility
±49¢ swing band
1d ago
High volatility
±10¢ swing band
1d ago
Odds swing
4¢ → 34¢ (+29.7¢ in 15 min)
1d ago
High volatility
±28.2¢ swing band
1d ago
Odds swing
4¢ → 100¢ (+95.6¢ in 15 min)
1d ago
High volatility
±9.8¢ swing band
1d ago
Odds swing
25¢ → 34¢ (+9.1¢ in 15 min)
1d ago

How this market resolves

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) during the date range specified in the title (from 12:00 AM ET on the first date to 11:59 PM ET on the last) has a final "Low" price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Low" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

Quick answers

How did "Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 October 5-11?" resolve?

This market ended on October 12, 2026 with a final traded price of 95¢ YES (95% implied probability).

What did the market predict?

Before settling, the market priced the YES outcome at 95¢ — an implied probability of 95%. Comparing final odds with outcomes across markets is how prediction-market accuracy is measured.