Will Bitcoin dip to $77,500 in October? — live odds

Part of What price will Bitcoin hit in October?· see all 20 outcomes →📲 Open in app

"Will Bitcoin dip to $77,500 in October?" is trading at a 33% implied probability, with YES at 33¢ and NO at 68¢. $200K has changed hands so far, $7K of it in the past 24 hours, and the market is scheduled to resolve by November 1, 2026. PolyWatch tracks every odds move, whale trade and volume spike on this crypto market in real time.

33%

implied probability

YES 33¢NO 68¢

recent price

+43¢ over the window

+43¢

24h change

$7K

24h volume

$200K

total volume

Nov 1, 2026

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

High volatility
±10¢ swing band
22m ago
High volatility
±5.3¢ swing band
37m ago
High volatility
±26.6¢ swing band
52m ago
Odds swing
35¢ → 12¢ (-23¢ in 15 min)
52m ago
High volatility
±5.3¢ swing band
1h ago
Volume spike
$14 traded — 3.2× the average
2h ago
High volatility
±39.3¢ swing band
2h ago
High volatility
±34.4¢ swing band
2h ago
Odds swing
23¢ → 38¢ (+15¢ in 15 min)
2h ago
High volatility
±21.6¢ swing band
3h ago

How this market resolves

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT during the month specified in the title (from 00:00 AM ET on the first day to 11:59 PM ET on the last), has a final Low price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT Low prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.