Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? — live odds

Part of Ballon d'Or Winner 2026· see all 19 outcomes →📲 Open in app

"Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?" is trading at a 66% implied probability, with YES at 65¢ and NO at 35¢. $5.6M has changed hands so far, $60K of it in the past 24 hours, and the market is scheduled to resolve by January 1, 2027. PolyWatch tracks every odds move, whale trade and volume spike on this sports market in real time.

66%

implied probability

YES 65¢NO 35¢

recent price

-1¢ over the window

-1¢

24h change

$60K

24h volume

$5.6M

total volume

Jan 1, 2027

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

High volatility
±51.1¢ swing band
9m ago
High volatility
±6.6¢ swing band
24m ago
Volume spike
$100 traded — 3.1× the average
31m ago
High volatility
±22.7¢ swing band
39m ago
Odds swing
59¢ → 100¢ (+40.2¢ in 15 min)
41m ago
Volume spike
$100 traded — 3.5× the average
46m ago
High volatility
±33.9¢ swing band
54m ago
Volume spike
$622 traded — 21.6× the average
1h ago
High volatility
±24.8¢ swing band
1h ago
High volatility
±24.9¢ swing band
1h ago

How this market resolves

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or. If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).