Will Michael be the top grossing movie of 2026? — live odds
"Will Michael be the top grossing movie of 2026?" is trading at a 0% implied probability, with YES at 0¢ and NO at 100¢. $1.3M has changed hands so far, and the market is scheduled to resolve by January 8, 2027. PolyWatch tracks every odds move, whale trade and volume spike on this culture market in real time.
0%
implied probability
recent price
-12¢ over the window
-12¢
24h change
—
24h volume
$1.3M
total volume
Jan 8, 2027
resolves
Radar activity on this market
Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.
- 28d ago
High volatility
±6¢ swing band
- 28d ago
High volatility
±4.8¢ swing band
- 28d ago
High volatility
±7.4¢ swing band
- 28d ago
High volatility
±4.5¢ swing band
- 103d ago
High volatility
±43.6¢ swing band
- 103d ago
High volatility
±21.1¢ swing band
- 105d ago
High volatility
±35.2¢ swing band
- 105d ago
Odds swing
1¢ → 30¢ (+29.3¢ in 15 min)
- 105d ago
High volatility
±26.4¢ swing band
- 105d ago
Odds swing
77¢ → 4¢ (-72.7¢ in 15 min)
How this market resolves
This market will resolve according to the title of the film with the highest 2026 gross according to the "Gross" column on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/2026/?grossesOption=calendarGrosses once data for December 31 is made available. Note: This market is about the movie's domestic calendar gross in 2026 - dates outside of 2026 will not count toward this movie's gross. In the event of an exact tie the film that comes first alphabetically will be considered the winner. If there is no final data available by January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Quick answers
What are the current odds of "Will Michael be the top grossing movie of 2026?"?
The market currently prices YES at 0¢ and NO at 100¢, an implied probability of 0% that the answer is yes.
When does this market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve by January 8, 2027. The stated resolution source is https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/2026/?grossesOption=calendarGrosses.
How much has been traded on this market?
$1.3M has been traded in total, — of it in the last 24 hours.
Prices as of . Informational only — PolyWatch is read-only analytics, not financial advice.
Get alerted when this market moves
Eleven detectors watch this market around the clock. The app pings you on the whale trade, the odds swing, the volume spike — the moment they happen.
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