Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? — live odds
"Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?" is trading at a 4% implied probability, with YES at 4¢ and NO at 96¢. $1.1M has changed hands so far, $2K of it in the past 24 hours, and the market is scheduled to resolve by January 1, 2027. PolyWatch tracks every odds move, whale trade and volume spike on this tech market in real time.
4%
implied probability
recent price
+1¢ over the window
+1¢
24h change
$2K
24h volume
$1.1M
total volume
Jan 1, 2027
resolves
Radar activity on this market
Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.
- 74d ago
High volatility
±24.9¢ swing band
- 74d ago
Odds swing
17¢ → 69¢ (+52¢ in 15 min)
- 74d ago
High volatility
±36.8¢ swing band
- 74d ago
Odds swing
59¢ → 18¢ (-41¢ in 15 min)
- 97d ago
High volatility
±19.7¢ swing band
- 97d ago
Odds swing
64¢ → 94¢ (+30¢ in 15 min)
- 97d ago
High volatility
±14.6¢ swing band
- 97d ago
Odds swing
18¢ → 72¢ (+54¢ in 15 min)
- 97d ago
High volatility
±27.9¢ swing band
- 110d ago
High volatility
±36.6¢ swing band
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by the listed date ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange. If OpenAI is acquired by another company that is already public, this market will immediately resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
Quick answers
What are the current odds of "Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?"?
The market currently prices YES at 4¢ and NO at 96¢, an implied probability of 4% that the answer is yes.
When does this market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve by January 1, 2027.
How much has been traded on this market?
$1.1M has been traded in total, $2K of it in the last 24 hours.
Prices as of . Informational only — PolyWatch is read-only analytics, not financial advice.
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