Will San Jose Earthquakes win the 2026 MLS Cup? — live odds

Part of MLS Cup Winner 2026· see all 30 outcomes →📲 Open in app

"Will San Jose Earthquakes win the 2026 MLS Cup?" is trading at a 3% implied probability, with YES at 3¢ and NO at 97¢. $1.2M has changed hands so far, $281 of it in the past 24 hours, and the market is scheduled to resolve by January 1, 2027. PolyWatch tracks every odds move, whale trade and volume spike on this sports market in real time.

implied probability

YES 3¢NO 97¢

recent price

0¢ over the window

0¢

24h change

$281

24h volume

$1.2M

total volume

Jan 1, 2027

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

High volatility
±42.5¢ swing band
24d ago
High volatility
±25.8¢ swing band
24d ago
High volatility
±25.8¢ swing band
24d ago
complete set arb
sum: 0.919 · edge: 0.071
118d ago
High volatility
±33.1¢ swing band
121d ago
Odds swing
0¢ → 16¢ (+15.6¢ in 15 min)
121d ago
High volatility
±39¢ swing band
121d ago
Odds swing
16¢ → 66¢ (+50¢ in 15 min)
121d ago
High volatility
±4.7¢ swing band
121d ago
High volatility
±23.5¢ swing band
121d ago

How this market resolves

This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2026 MLS Cup. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to win the 2026 MLS Cup per the rules of MLS (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the 2026 MLS season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026 ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from Major League Soccer; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.