Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released between October 26 and November 1, 2026? — live odds

"Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released between October 26 and November 1, 2026?" is trading at a 1% implied probability, with YES at 1¢ and NO at 99¢. $12K has changed hands so far, $50 of it in the past 24 hours, and the market is scheduled to resolve by November 1, 2026. PolyWatch tracks every odds move, whale trade and volume spike on this tech market in real time.

1%

implied probability

YES 1¢NO 99¢

recent price

+9¢ over the window

+9¢

24h change

$50

24h volume

$12K

total volume

Nov 1, 2026

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

  • Odds swing

    2¢ → 11¢ (+8.8¢ in 15 min)

    6h ago
  • Spread blowout

    spread 0.036¢ vs 0.0096¢ normal

    6h ago
  • Odds swing

    10¢ → 1¢ (-9.4¢ in 15 min)

    6h ago
  • High volatility

    ±4.8¢ swing band

    6h ago
  • Odds swing

    44¢ → 7¢ (-37.5¢ in 15 min)

    5d ago
  • Odds swing

    16¢ → 6¢ (-9.2¢ in 15 min)

    5d ago
How this market resolves

This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public. Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Quick answers

What are the current odds of "Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released between October 26 and November 1, 2026?"?

The market currently prices YES at 1¢ and NO at 99¢, an implied probability of 1% that the answer is yes.

When does this market resolve?

This market is scheduled to resolve by November 1, 2026.

How much has been traded on this market?

$12K has been traded in total, $50 of it in the last 24 hours.

Prices as of . Informational only — PolyWatch is read-only analytics, not financial advice.

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