Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? — live odds

"Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?" is trading at a 18% implied probability, with YES at 18¢ and NO at 83¢. $73.8M has changed hands so far, $463K of it in the past 24 hours, and the market is scheduled to resolve by January 1, 2027. PolyWatch tracks every odds move, whale trade and volume spike on this politics market in real time.

18%

implied probability

YES 18¢NO 83¢

recent price

+76¢ over the window

+76¢

24h change

$463K

24h volume

$73.8M

total volume

Jan 1, 2027

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

High volatility
±39.3¢ swing band
7m ago
Odds swing
93¢ → 47¢ (-46¢ in 15 min)
7m ago
High volatility
±36.4¢ swing band
22m ago
Odds swing
14¢ → 94¢ (+80¢ in 15 min)
22m ago
High volatility
±44.6¢ swing band
37m ago
Odds swing
15¢ → 93¢ (+78¢ in 15 min)
37m ago
High volatility
±45.7¢ swing band
52m ago
High volatility
±39.9¢ swing band
1h ago
Odds swing
16¢ → 47¢ (+31¢ in 15 min)
1h ago
High volatility
±44.5¢ swing band
1h ago

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.