Which outcome is favored for Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by...??

The market currently favors Decem at 8% implied probability (YES trading at 8¢).

How much has been traded on Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by...??

$2.4M has been traded across 2 outcome markets, $21K of it in the last 24 hours.

When do these markets resolve?

The earliest outcome market is scheduled to resolve by November 1, 2026.

Event odds table

Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by...? — live odds

2 outcomes$2.4M traded$21K · 24hresolves by November 1, 2026

Live Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by...? odds: Decem leads the field at 8% implied probability, ahead of Octo (2%). All 2 outcome markets are ranked below by the odds real money is pricing, with $2.4M traded ($21K in the last 24 hours) and the field resolving by November 1, 2026. Prices refresh every few minutes as trades land.

The market's call

Decem 8%

implied probability (8¢ YES) — the most-likely outcome of 2

Full market details →

1Decem

8%8¢ · $19K 24h 2Octo

2%2¢ · $2K 24h

About this event

Which outcome is favored for Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by...??: The market currently favors Decem at 8% implied probability (YES trading at 8¢).
How much has been traded on Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by...??: $2.4M has been traded across 2 outcome markets, $21K of it in the last 24 hours.
When do these markets resolve?: The earliest outcome market is scheduled to resolve by November 1, 2026.

Get alerts on every outcome

PolyWatch watches all 2 outcome markets 24/7 and pushes whale trades, odds swings and volume spikes the moment they land. Free on iOS and Android.