Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? — live odds

Part of Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by...?· see all 6 outcomes →📲 Open in app

"Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?" is trading at a 6% implied probability, with YES at 6¢ and NO at 95¢. $2.3M has changed hands so far, $34K of it in the past 24 hours, and the market is scheduled to resolve by January 1, 2027. PolyWatch tracks every odds move, whale trade and volume spike on this politics market in real time.

implied probability

YES 6¢NO 95¢

recent price

-5¢ over the window

-5¢

24h change

$34K

24h volume

$2.3M

total volume

Jan 1, 2027

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

High volatility
±8.2¢ swing band
117d ago
Odds swing
12¢ → 32¢ (+20¢ in 15 min)
117d ago
High volatility
±13.5¢ swing band
117d ago
Odds swing
55¢ → 7¢ (-48¢ in 15 min)
117d ago
High volatility
±11.2¢ swing band
117d ago
Odds swing
70¢ → 7¢ (-63¢ in 15 min)
117d ago
High volatility
±9.2¢ swing band
117d ago
Odds swing
19¢ → 57¢ (+38¢ in 15 min)
117d ago
High volatility
±10.3¢ swing band
117d ago
Odds swing
70¢ → 51¢ (-19¢ in 15 min)
117d ago

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Friedrich Merz ceases to be the Chancellor of Germany for any period of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Friedrich Merz's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of Germany, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.