9.0 or above earthquake before 2027? — live odds

"9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?" is trading at a 3% implied probability, with YES at 3¢ and NO at 97¢. $332K has changed hands so far, and the market is scheduled to resolve by February 1, 2027. PolyWatch tracks every odds move, whale trade and volume spike on this science market in real time.

implied probability

YES 3¢NO 97¢

recent price

+3¢ over the window

+3¢

24h change

—

24h volume

$332K

total volume

Feb 1, 2027

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

High volatility
±42.5¢ swing band
22d ago
High volatility
±28.1¢ swing band
22d ago
Odds swing
5¢ → 98¢ (+92.6¢ in 15 min)
22d ago
High volatility
±7.1¢ swing band
22d ago
Odds swing
0¢ → 12¢ (+11.7¢ in 15 min)
22d ago
High volatility
±5.8¢ swing band
22d ago
High volatility
±41.4¢ swing band
22d ago
Odds swing
0¢ → 98¢ (+97.8¢ in 15 min)
22d ago
Odds swing
0¢ → 12¢ (+11.7¢ in 15 min)
22d ago
High volatility
±19.5¢ swing band
22d ago

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used. After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.

Quick answers

What are the current odds of "9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?"?

The market currently prices YES at 3¢ and NO at 97¢, an implied probability of 3% that the answer is yes.

When does this market resolve?

This market is scheduled to resolve by February 1, 2027. The stated resolution source is https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef.