New pandemic in 2026? — live odds
"New pandemic in 2026?" is trading at a 5% implied probability, with YES at 5¢ and NO at 96¢. $1.2M has changed hands so far, and the market is scheduled to resolve by January 1, 2027. PolyWatch tracks every odds move, whale trade and volume spike on this science market in real time.
5%
implied probability
recent price
0¢ over the window
0¢
24h change
—
24h volume
$1.2M
total volume
Jan 1, 2027
resolves
Radar activity on this market
Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.
- 22h ago
High volatility
±26.3¢ swing band
- 23h ago
Odds swing
44¢ → 2¢ (-42¢ in 15 min)
- 23h ago
High volatility
±27¢ swing band
- 23h ago
High volatility
±13.8¢ swing band
- 23h ago
High volatility
±32.2¢ swing band
- 4d ago
High volatility
±34.1¢ swing band
- 58d ago
High volatility
±25.5¢ swing band
- 58d ago
High volatility
±27¢ swing band
- 58d ago
High volatility
±24.7¢ swing band
- 58d ago
Odds swing
3¢ → 93¢ (+90¢ in 15 min)
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization (WHO) declares any disease a pandemic between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be official announcements from the World Health Organization.
Quick answers
What are the current odds of "New pandemic in 2026?"?
The market currently prices YES at 5¢ and NO at 96¢, an implied probability of 5% that the answer is yes.
When does this market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve by January 1, 2027.
How much has been traded on this market?
$1.2M has been traded in total, — of it in the last 24 hours.
Prices as of . Informational only — PolyWatch is read-only analytics, not financial advice.
Get alerted when this market moves
Eleven detectors watch this market around the clock. The app pings you on the whale trade, the odds swing, the volume spike — the moment they happen.
Already have PolyWatch? Open this market in the app
From the blog
Related Science markets
Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by December 31, 2026?
3%
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?
46%
Will 2026 be the fifth-hottest year on record?
0%
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
1%
Ebola pandemic in 2026?
2%
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?
65%