Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? — live odds

Part of Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?· see all 12 outcomes →📲 Open in app

"Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?" is trading at a 47% implied probability, with YES at 47¢ and NO at 54¢. $936K has changed hands so far, $487 of it in the past 24 hours, and the market is scheduled to resolve by January 2, 2027. PolyWatch tracks every odds move, whale trade and volume spike on this science market in real time.

47%

implied probability

YES 47¢NO 54¢

recent price

-5¢ over the window

-5¢

24h change

$487

24h volume

$936K

total volume

Jan 2, 2027

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

High volatility
±7.7¢ swing band
13m ago
High volatility
±6.2¢ swing band
29m ago
High volatility
±5.8¢ swing band
44m ago
High volatility
±12¢ swing band
1h ago
Odds swing
61¢ → 45¢ (-16¢ in 15 min)
1h ago
High volatility
±31.9¢ swing band
1h ago
High volatility
±6.5¢ swing band
2h ago
High volatility
±9.4¢ swing band
3h ago
High volatility
±13.3¢ swing band
3h ago
Odds swing
72¢ → 45¢ (-27¢ in 15 min)
3h ago

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026. This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used. A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.