Bitcoin Up or Down on September 26? — final odds

This market has ended · September 26, 2026Final price — YES — the market gave this a 0% implied probability.

"Bitcoin Up or Down on September 26?" resolved on September 26, 2026 at a final price of — YES — a 0% implied probability — after $179K in total trading volume. The full odds history and the radar signals that moved it are below.

implied probability

YES —NO —

recent price

—

24h change

$173K

24h volume

$179K

total volume

Sep 26, 2026

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

Spread blowout
spread 1¢ vs 0.0207¢ normal
17d ago
High volatility
±29.1¢ swing band
17d ago
High volatility
±41.6¢ swing band
17d ago
Odds swing
14¢ → 36¢ (+22¢ in 15 min)
17d ago
High volatility
±35.8¢ swing band
17d ago
High volatility
±32.8¢ swing band
17d ago
High volatility
±35.4¢ swing band
17d ago
High volatility
±31.9¢ swing band
17d ago
High volatility
±13.2¢ swing band
17d ago
Odds swing
56¢ → 30¢ (-26¢ in 15 min)
17d ago

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Sep 25 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Sep 26 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Sep 25 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Sep 26 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

Quick answers

How did "Bitcoin Up or Down on September 26?" resolve?

This market ended on September 26, 2026 with a final traded price of — YES (0% implied probability).

What did the market predict?

Before settling, the market priced the YES outcome at — — an implied probability of 0%. Comparing final odds with outcomes across markets is how prediction-market accuracy is measured.