TL;DR
- 🐋 $81.6K whale sell impacts US-Iran market, price follows 71¢
- 🎬 'Primetime' box office market drops 38.5¢ to 20.5¢
- 📈 Fed rate cut odds see 4078x volume spike
📈 The big moves
| Market | Move | Now | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| "Primetime" Opening Weekend Box Office | ▼ -38.5¢ | 20.5¢ (20.5%) | N/A |
| Bitcoin Up or Down on September 26? | ▲ +27.5¢ | 78.5¢ (78.5%) | N/A |
| Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Astralis | ▲ +25.0¢ | 71.5¢ (71.5%) | N/A |
The market for "Will "Primetime" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 19m and 22m?" saw the most significant move, dropping 38.5¢ to settle at 20.5¢ implied probability. This shift indicates a strong re-pricing of expectations for the film's opening performance as its resolution date nears.
🐋 Whale watch
A major whale sell of $81.6K hit the market "Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?". This large-volume trade corresponded with a sharp 71.0¢ price impact. Meanwhile, another substantial trade saw a buyer inject $69.1K into the "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?" market, causing a -98.2¢ price impact as it absorbed the liquidity. For more on tracking big players, see our whale watching guide.
📊 Volume spikes
Today's trading saw a significant volume spike in markets related to central bank policy. The market "Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?" recorded an impressive $102.1K in volume, a multiplier of 4078.6x its average. Another notable surge occurred in the "Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?" market, which saw $2.0K in volume, 92.2x its usual daily average.
🗓️ Resolving soon
Several sports markets are closing shortly, including "Will Spain win on 2026-09-26?" (settling today at 18:45 UTC) and "Valorant: LOUD vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Champions Group B" (also today at 18:00 UTC). Additionally, baseball ERA and runs leader markets for the 2026 regular season are set to resolve on September 28. For a deeper understanding of market dynamics, check out our guide on how to read Polymarket. Track the latest movements in sports odds and crypto prediction markets for up-to-the-minute insights.
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