
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting? — live odds
"Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?" is trading at a 0% implied probability, with YES at 0¢ and NO at 100¢. $6.0M has changed hands so far, $114K of it in the past 24 hours, and the market is scheduled to resolve by October 29, 2026. PolyWatch tracks every odds move, whale trade and volume spike on this finance market in real time.
0%
implied probability
recent price
+2¢ over the window
+2¢
24h change
$114K
24h volume
$6.0M
total volume
Oct 29, 2026
resolves
Radar activity on this market
Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.
- 6m ago
Odds swing
23¢ → 2¢ (-20.6¢ in 15 min)
- 7m ago
Volume spike
$111 traded — 18.9× the average
- 22m ago
High volatility
±38¢ swing band
- 22m ago
Odds swing
23¢ → 0¢ (-22.7¢ in 15 min)
- 37m ago
High volatility
±28.1¢ swing band
- 37m ago
Odds swing
100¢ → 2¢ (-97.7¢ in 15 min)
- 2h ago
High volatility
±8.8¢ swing band
- 2h ago
High volatility
±8¢ swing band
- 2h ago
Volume spike
$472 traded — 90.8× the average
- 2h ago
Odds swing
23¢ → 0¢ (-22.7¢ in 15 min)
How this market resolves
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Quick answers
What are the current odds of "Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?"?
The market currently prices YES at 0¢ and NO at 100¢, an implied probability of 0% that the answer is yes.
When does this market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve by October 29, 2026. The stated resolution source is https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
How much has been traded on this market?
$6.0M has been traded in total, $114K of it in the last 24 hours.
Prices as of . Informational only — PolyWatch is read-only analytics, not financial advice.
Get alerted when this market moves
Eleven detectors watch this market around the clock. The app pings you on the whale trade, the odds swing, the volume spike — the moment they happen.
Already have PolyWatch? Open this market in the app
From the blog
- Polymarket Daily Radar — Oct 8: Bitcoin Whale & CS2 Drop
- Polymarket Daily Radar — Oct 5: Bitcoin, Fed & Elon Moves
- Polymarket Daily Radar — Oct 4: Harris Odds Drop
Related Finance markets
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?
0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
0%