Fed, Rates & Macro Odds

Fed, Rates & Macro Odds

200 markets$1.9M · 24h on this page

Live macro prediction markets — Fed decisions, rate moves, and economic outcomes as implied probabilities.

Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

96%

YES 96¢ · NO 5¢$8.8M
Financeresolves Jan 1, 2027

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?

84%

YES 84¢ · NO 17¢$8.2M
Financeresolves Oct 29, 2026

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?

17%

YES 17¢ · NO 84¢$7.0M
Financeresolves Oct 29, 2026

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?

0%

YES 0¢ · NO 100¢$5.4M
Financeresolves Oct 29, 2026

Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

0%

YES 0¢ · NO 100¢$5.3M
Financeresolves Jan 1, 2027

Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

0%

YES 0¢ · NO 100¢$5.0M
Financeresolves Jan 1, 2027

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?

0%

YES 0¢ · NO 100¢$4.8M
Financeresolves Oct 29, 2026

Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

0%

YES 0¢ · NO 100¢$4.3M
Financeresolves Jan 1, 2027

Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

0%

YES 0¢ · NO 100¢$4.2M
Financeresolves Jan 1, 2027

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?

0%

YES 0¢ · NO 100¢$4.1M
Financeresolves Oct 29, 2026

Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

0%

YES 0¢ · NO 100¢$4.0M
Financeresolves Jan 1, 2027

Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

0%

YES 0¢ · NO 100¢$3.5M
Financeresolves Jan 1, 2027

Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?

2%

YES 2¢ · NO 98¢$3.5M
Financeresolves Jan 1, 2027

Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

1%

YES 1¢ · NO 99¢$3.4M
Financeresolves Jan 1, 2027

Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

0%

YES 0¢ · NO 100¢$3.3M
Financeresolves Jan 1, 2027

Will GameStop acquire eBay?

6%

YES 6¢ · NO 95¢$3.1M
Financeresolves Jan 1, 2027

Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

0%

YES 0¢ · NO 100¢$3.0M
Financeresolves Jan 1, 2027

Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

0%

YES 0¢ · NO 100¢$3.0M
Financeresolves Jan 1, 2027

Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

0%

YES 0¢ · NO 100¢$2.7M
Financeresolves Jan 1, 2027

US recession by end of 2026?

7%

YES 7¢ · NO 94¢$2.3M
Financeresolves Jan 31, 2027

Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?

5%

YES 5¢ · NO 96¢$1.3M
Financeresolves Dec 31, 2026

Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?

2%

YES 1¢ · NO 99¢$1.2M
Financeresolves Nov 1, 2026

Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?

82%

YES 82¢ · NO 19¢$1.0M
Financeresolves Jan 1, 2027

Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?

96%

YES 95¢ · NO 5¢$808K
Financeresolves Jan 1, 2027

Today in Fed, Rates & Macro Odds

Most active todayWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?17¢ · $422K · 24hResolving nextWill Anthropic IPO by October 15, 2026?0¢ · resolves October 16, 2026Biggest marketWill no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?96¢ · $8.8M all-time

Fed, Rates & Macro Odds — common questions

What is the most active fed, rates & macro odds market right now?
"Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?" leads today's trading with $422K in 24h volume, currently pricing YES at 17¢ (17% implied probability).
How much is traded on fed, rates & macro odds?
The 200 markets tracked here traded $1.9M in the last 24 hours. The largest, "Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?", has $8.8M in lifetime volume.
How do these odds work?
Each price is a probability: a market trading at 17¢ means the crowd prices roughly a 17% chance it happens. PolyWatch reads every Polymarket market this way and flags the ones actually moving.