Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? — live odds

"Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?" is trading at a 2% implied probability, with YES at 2¢ and NO at 98¢. $44.0M has changed hands so far, $71K of it in the past 24 hours, and the market is scheduled to resolve by January 1, 2027. PolyWatch tracks every odds move, whale trade and volume spike on this politics market in real time.

implied probability

YES 2¢NO 98¢

recent price

-38¢ over the window

-38¢

24h change

$71K

24h volume

$44.0M

total volume

Jan 1, 2027

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

Odds swing
32¢ → 42¢ (+10¢ in 15 min)
4m ago
Volume spike
$192 traded — 5.2× the average
14m ago
High volatility
±4.9¢ swing band
14m ago
High volatility
±29.4¢ swing band
29m ago
Odds swing
19¢ → 61¢ (+42¢ in 15 min)
34m ago
High volatility
±20.7¢ swing band
45m ago
High volatility
±20.9¢ swing band
1h ago
Odds swing
1¢ → 100¢ (+99.1¢ in 15 min)
1h ago
High volatility
±25.5¢ swing band
1h ago
Odds swing
32¢ → 2¢ (-30¢ in 15 min)
1h ago

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.