Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? — live odds
"Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?" is trading at a 6% implied probability, with YES at 6¢ and NO at 94¢. $24.0M has changed hands so far, $13K of it in the past 24 hours, and the market is scheduled to resolve by January 1, 2027. PolyWatch tracks every odds move, whale trade and volume spike on this politics market in real time.
6%
implied probability
recent price
0¢ over the window
0¢
24h change
$13K
24h volume
$24.0M
total volume
Jan 1, 2027
resolves
Radar activity on this market
Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.
- 4m ago
High volatility
±27.1¢ swing band
- 13m ago
Odds swing
16¢ → 69¢ (+53¢ in 15 min)
- 19m ago
High volatility
±24.7¢ swing band
- 34m ago
High volatility
±32.9¢ swing band
- 43m ago
Odds swing
68¢ → 9¢ (-58.9¢ in 15 min)
- 49m ago
High volatility
±34.5¢ swing band
- 59m ago
Odds swing
7¢ → 84¢ (+77.3¢ in 15 min)
- 1h ago
High volatility
±52.9¢ swing band
- 1h ago
Volume spike
$28 traded — 3× the average
- 1h ago
Odds swing
85¢ → 6¢ (-79.3¢ in 15 min)
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025 (H.R.3633) is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source is Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/3633) and other official information from the government of the United States, however other credible reporting may be used.
Quick answers
What are the current odds of "Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?"?
The market currently prices YES at 6¢ and NO at 94¢, an implied probability of 6% that the answer is yes.
When does this market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve by January 1, 2027. The stated resolution source is https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/3633.
How much has been traded on this market?
$24.0M has been traded in total, $13K of it in the last 24 hours.
Prices as of . Informational only — PolyWatch is read-only analytics, not financial advice.
Get alerted when this market moves
Eleven detectors watch this market around the clock. The app pings you on the whale trade, the odds swing, the volume spike — the moment they happen.
Already have PolyWatch? Open this market in the app
From the blog
- Polymarket Daily Radar — Oct 5: Bitcoin, Fed & Elon Moves
- Polymarket Daily Radar — Oct 4: Harris Odds Drop
- Polymarket Daily Radar — Sep 20: Clarity Act Whale, Lula
Related Politics markets
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
18%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
2%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
1%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
0%