Fed rate hike in 2026? — final odds
"Fed rate hike in 2026?" resolved on December 9, 2026 at a final price of — YES — a 0% implied probability — after $9.9M in total trading volume. The full odds history and the radar signals that moved it are below.
0%
implied probability
recent price
—
24h change
$344K
24h volume
$9.9M
total volume
Dec 9, 2026
resolves
Radar activity on this market
Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.
- 26d ago
Volume spike
$162,577 traded — 1344.6× the average
- 26d ago
Spread blowout
spread 0.75¢ vs 0.0057¢ normal
- 26d ago
High volatility
±40.3¢ swing band
- 26d ago
High volatility
±38.6¢ swing band
- 26d ago
Volume spike
$1,420 traded — 7.5× the average
- 26d ago
High volatility
±31.9¢ swing band
- 26d ago
Odds swing
1¢ → 76¢ (+74.3¢ in 15 min)
- 26d ago
High volatility
±38.4¢ swing band
- 26d ago
Volume spike
$21,117 traded — 91.2× the average
- 26d ago
High volatility
±47.4¢ swing band
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Quick answers
How did "Fed rate hike in 2026?" resolve?
This market ended on December 9, 2026 with a final traded price of — YES (0% implied probability).
What did the market predict?
Before settling, the market priced the YES outcome at — — an implied probability of 0%. Comparing final odds with outcomes across markets is how prediction-market accuracy is measured.
How much was traded on this market?
$9.9M was traded over the market's lifetime.
Get alerted when this market moves
Eleven detectors watch this market around the clock. The app pings you on the whale trade, the odds swing, the volume spike — the moment they happen.
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From the blog
- Polymarket Daily Radar — Sep 16: Valencia Match Sees 45¢
- Polymarket Daily Radar — Sep 12: Fed Rate Hike Bets Move
- Polymarket Daily Radar — Sep 3: $130K Whale Sell
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