OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? — live odds

Part of OpenAI IPO closing market cap above ___ ?· see all 5 outcomes →📲 Open in app

"OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.2T?" is trading at a 63% implied probability, with YES at 63¢ and NO at 37¢. $250K has changed hands so far, and the market is scheduled to resolve by January 1, 2028. PolyWatch tracks every odds move, whale trade and volume spike on this tech market in real time.

63%

implied probability

YES 63¢NO 37¢

recent price

-1¢ over the window

-1¢

24h change

—

24h volume

$250K

total volume

Jan 1, 2028

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

High volatility
±38.7¢ swing band
104d ago
High volatility
±25.1¢ swing band
104d ago
Odds swing
92¢ → 6¢ (-86¢ in 15 min)
104d ago
High volatility
±24.7¢ swing band
104d ago
Odds swing
24¢ → 95¢ (+71¢ in 15 min)
104d ago
High volatility
±29.6¢ swing band
104d ago

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the official closing price for OpenAI's market capitalization on its first trading day is above the listed value. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI's first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading.