OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? — live odds
"OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.4T?" is trading at a 63% implied probability, with YES at 63¢ and NO at 38¢. $73K has changed hands so far, $45 of it in the past 24 hours, and the market is scheduled to resolve by January 1, 2028. PolyWatch tracks every odds move, whale trade and volume spike on this tech market in real time.
63%
implied probability
recent price
+6¢ over the window
+6¢
24h change
$45
24h volume
$73K
total volume
Jan 1, 2028
resolves
Radar activity on this market
Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.
- 6d ago
High volatility
±29.7¢ swing band
- 6d ago
Odds swing
42¢ → 77¢ (+35¢ in 15 min)
- 6d ago
High volatility
±7.3¢ swing band
- 6d ago
Odds swing
56¢ → 43¢ (-12.5¢ in 15 min)
- 6d ago
High volatility
±7¢ swing band
- 6d ago
Odds swing
41¢ → 82¢ (+41¢ in 15 min)
- 6d ago
High volatility
±14.3¢ swing band
- 6d ago
Odds swing
84¢ → 51¢ (-33¢ in 15 min)
- 7d ago
High volatility
±13.7¢ swing band
- 7d ago
High volatility
±6.4¢ swing band
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the official closing price for OpenAI's market capitalization on its first trading day is above the listed value. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI's first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading.
Quick answers
What are the current odds of "OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.4T?"?
The market currently prices YES at 63¢ and NO at 38¢, an implied probability of 63% that the answer is yes.
When does this market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve by January 1, 2028.
How much has been traded on this market?
$73K has been traded in total, $45 of it in the last 24 hours.
Prices as of . Informational only — PolyWatch is read-only analytics, not financial advice.
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