
Trump renames AI by September 30? — final odds
"Trump renames AI by September 30?" resolved on October 1, 2026 at a final price of — YES — a 0% implied probability — after $1.3M in total trading volume. The full odds history and the radar signals that moved it are below.
0%
implied probability
recent price
—
24h change
$755K
24h volume
$1.3M
total volume
Oct 1, 2026
resolves
Radar activity on this market
Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.
No detector alerts on this market in the last 24 hours — quiet tape.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs an executive order, proclamation, or presidential memorandum that adopts a new official name for artificial intelligence, or directs a federal agency or the federal government to adopt one, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying action must replace or supersede "artificial intelligence" as the federal government's designation for the technology itself. Any replacement name qualifies, including "Superior Intelligence", "Extreme Intelligence", "Supreme Intelligence", or "Genius Intelligence"; the name chosen has no bearing on resolution. An order that directs an agency to adopt or implement such a name within a stated period qualifies. Statements, speeches, interviews, press conferences, and social media posts, including polls posted to social media, do not count. Renaming a federal office, agency, program, task force, commission, or military service, such as an "AI Force", does not count unless the same action also renames the technology itself. Renaming a specific product, model, or private-sector system does not count. Incidental use of an alternative term in the text of an order, without a directive adopting it as the official designation, does not count. The signing or issuance of a qualifying order within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of when the order takes effect, and regardless of whether it is subsequently stayed, enjoined, revoked, or superseded. The primary resolution source will be official information from the government of the United States, including the text of presidential actions published at whitehouse.gov and in the Federal Register; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Quick answers
How did "Trump renames AI by September 30?" resolve?
This market ended on October 1, 2026 with a final traded price of — YES (0% implied probability).
What did the market predict?
Before settling, the market priced the YES outcome at — — an implied probability of 0%. Comparing final odds with outcomes across markets is how prediction-market accuracy is measured.
How much was traded on this market?
$1.3M was traded over the market's lifetime.
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Eleven detectors watch this market around the clock. The app pings you on the whale trade, the odds swing, the volume spike — the moment they happen.
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