Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? — final odds

This market has ended · October 5, 2026Final price 16¢ YES — the market gave this a 16% implied probability.

"Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?" resolved on October 5, 2026 at a final price of 16¢ YES — a 16% implied probability — after $22.9M in total trading volume. The full odds history and the radar signals that moved it are below.

16%

implied probability

YES 16¢NO 84¢

recent price

-60¢ over the window

-60¢

24h change

$595K

24h volume

$22.9M

total volume

Oct 5, 2026

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

High volatility
±14.1¢ swing band
9d ago
High volatility
±18.9¢ swing band
9d ago
High volatility
±22.1¢ swing band
9d ago
Odds swing
13¢ → 24¢ (+11¢ in 15 min)
9d ago
High volatility
±13.4¢ swing band
9d ago
Volume spike
$7,758 traded — 15× the average
9d ago
Volume spike
$9,424 traded — 18.8× the average
9d ago
High volatility
±35¢ swing band
9d ago
High volatility
±17.9¢ swing band
9d ago
Odds swing
50¢ → 16¢ (-34¢ in 15 min)
9d ago

How this market resolves

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Quick answers

How did "Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?" resolve?

This market ended on October 5, 2026 with a final traded price of 16¢ YES (16% implied probability).

What did the market predict?

Before settling, the market priced the YES outcome at 16¢ — an implied probability of 16%. Comparing final odds with outcomes across markets is how prediction-market accuracy is measured.