Will Matt Heilala win the 2026 Alaska governor election? — live odds

Part of Alaska Governor Election Winner · see all 22 outcomes →📲 Open in app

"Will Matt Heilala win the 2026 Alaska governor election?" is trading at a 0% implied probability, with YES at 0¢ and NO at 100¢. $43K has changed hands so far, and the market is scheduled to resolve by November 4, 2026. PolyWatch tracks every odds move, whale trade and volume spike on this politics market in real time.

implied probability

YES 0¢NO 100¢

recent price

0¢ over the window

0¢

24h change

—

24h volume

$43K

total volume

Nov 4, 2026

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

High volatility
±9.1¢ swing band
116d ago
Odds swing
20¢ → 48¢ (+28.3¢ in 15 min)
116d ago
High volatility
±4.8¢ swing band
116d ago
Odds swing
61¢ → 18¢ (-43.2¢ in 15 min)
116d ago
High volatility
±2.2¢ swing band
116d ago
Odds swing
89¢ → 18¢ (-70.9¢ in 15 min)
116d ago
High volatility
±5.4¢ swing band
116d ago
Odds swing
69¢ → 98¢ (+29¢ in 15 min)
116d ago
High volatility
±12.4¢ swing band
116d ago
Odds swing
61¢ → 48¢ (-12.8¢ in 15 min)
116d ago

How this market resolves

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in Alaska for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.