Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? — live odds
"Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?" is trading at a 0% implied probability, with YES at 0¢ and NO at 100¢. $1.1M has changed hands so far, $1K of it in the past 24 hours, and the market is scheduled to resolve by January 1, 2027. PolyWatch tracks every odds move, whale trade and volume spike on this tech market in real time.
0%
implied probability
recent price
-48¢ over the window
-48¢
24h change
$1K
24h volume
$1.1M
total volume
Jan 1, 2027
resolves
Radar activity on this market
Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.
- 2m ago
High volatility
±13.7¢ swing band
- 17m ago
High volatility
±31.5¢ swing band
- 17m ago
Odds swing
9¢ → 100¢ (+91.2¢ in 15 min)
- 33m ago
High volatility
±43.4¢ swing band
- 50m ago
Odds swing
54¢ → 10¢ (-44.1¢ in 15 min)
- 1h ago
Volume spike
$11 traded — 12.4× the average
- 1h ago
High volatility
±38.6¢ swing band
- 1h ago
Odds swing
85¢ → 9¢ (-76.2¢ in 15 min)
- 2h ago
High volatility
±40.1¢ swing band
- 2h ago
High volatility
±36.8¢ swing band
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31, 2026, as of market close. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Quick answers
What are the current odds of "Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?"?
The market currently prices YES at 0¢ and NO at 100¢, an implied probability of 0% that the answer is yes.
When does this market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve by January 1, 2027.
How much has been traded on this market?
$1.1M has been traded in total, $1K of it in the last 24 hours.
Prices as of . Informational only — PolyWatch is read-only analytics, not financial advice.
Get alerted when this market moves
Eleven detectors watch this market around the clock. The app pings you on the whale trade, the odds swing, the volume spike — the moment they happen.
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