
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027? — live odds
"Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?" is trading at a 55% implied probability, with YES at 55¢ and NO at 45¢. $278K has changed hands so far, $500 of it in the past 24 hours, and the market is scheduled to resolve by January 1, 2028. PolyWatch tracks every odds move, whale trade and volume spike on this science market in real time.
55%
implied probability
recent price
-1¢ over the window
-1¢
24h change
$500
24h volume
$278K
total volume
Jan 1, 2028
resolves
Radar activity on this market
Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.
- 11d ago
High volatility
±4.1¢ swing band
- 11d ago
High volatility
±4.4¢ swing band
- 11d ago
High volatility
±15.9¢ swing band
- 11d ago
High volatility
±4.5¢ swing band
- 11d ago
Odds swing
15¢ → 56¢ (+41¢ in 15 min)
- 11d ago
High volatility
±21¢ swing band
- 11d ago
Odds swing
59¢ → 7¢ (-52¢ in 15 min)
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI, or an official representative of OpenAI, announces that OpenAI has solved any of the qualifying Millennium Prize Problems between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The qualifying problems are the Riemann Hypothesis, P versus NP, the Yang-Mills existence and mass gap problem, the Hodge Conjecture, and the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture (https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/). Announcements concerning the Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness problem will not qualify. A qualifying announcement must express that the problem has been solved; announcements of partial results or progress toward a solution will not qualify. The announcement must present the solution as the work of OpenAI, its researchers, or its models, alone or jointly with outside researchers. An announcement that only credits or congratulates outside researchers, including researchers who used OpenAI's models, compute, or research credits, will not qualify. No further confirmation from Clay Math Institute or any other organization is required. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Quick answers
What are the current odds of "Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?"?
The market currently prices YES at 55¢ and NO at 45¢, an implied probability of 55% that the answer is yes.
When does this market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve by January 1, 2028. The stated resolution source is https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/.
How much has been traded on this market?
$278K has been traded in total, $500 of it in the last 24 hours.
Prices as of . Informational only — PolyWatch is read-only analytics, not financial advice.
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