Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.2% before 2027? — final odds

This market has ended · January 1, 2027Final price — YES — the market gave this a 0% implied probability.

"Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.2% before 2027?" resolved on January 1, 2027 at a final price of — YES — a 0% implied probability — after $166K in total trading volume. The full odds history and the radar signals that moved it are below.

0%

implied probability

YES —NO —

recent price

—

24h change

$27K

24h volume

$166K

total volume

Jan 1, 2027

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

  • High volatility

    ±22.4¢ swing band

    103d ago
  • Odds swing

    69¢ → 82¢ (+13¢ in 15 min)

    103d ago
  • High volatility

    ±10.5¢ swing band

    103d ago
  • Odds swing

    100¢ → 80¢ (-19.6¢ in 15 min)

    103d ago
  • High volatility

    ±8.2¢ swing band

    103d ago
  • Odds swing

    10¢ → 90¢ (+80¢ in 15 min)

    103d ago
  • High volatility

    ±20.9¢ swing band

    103d ago
  • High volatility

    ±18.2¢ swing band

    118d ago
  • Odds swing

    94¢ → 8¢ (-85.7¢ in 15 min)

    118d ago
  • High volatility

    ±31¢ swing band

    118d ago
How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time. The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).

Quick answers

How did "Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.2% before 2027?" resolve?

This market ended on January 1, 2027 with a final traded price of — YES (0% implied probability).

What did the market predict?

Before settling, the market priced the YES outcome at — — an implied probability of 0%. Comparing final odds with outcomes across markets is how prediction-market accuracy is measured.

How much was traded on this market?

$166K was traded over the market's lifetime.

Get alerted when this market moves

Eleven detectors watch this market around the clock. The app pings you on the whale trade, the odds swing, the volume spike — the moment they happen.

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