
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.4% before 2027? — live odds
"Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.4% before 2027?" is trading at a 68% implied probability, with YES at 68¢ and NO at 32¢. $51K has changed hands so far, $3K of it in the past 24 hours, and the market is scheduled to resolve by January 1, 2027. PolyWatch tracks every odds move, whale trade and volume spike on this finance market in real time.
68%
implied probability
recent price
+10¢ over the window
+10¢
24h change
$3K
24h volume
$51K
total volume
Jan 1, 2027
resolves
Radar activity on this market
Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.
No detector alerts on this market in the last 24 hours — quiet tape.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date from market creation to December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time. The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
Quick answers
What are the current odds of "Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.4% before 2027?"?
The market currently prices YES at 68¢ and NO at 32¢, an implied probability of 68% that the answer is yes.
When does this market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve by January 1, 2027. The stated resolution source is https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025.
How much has been traded on this market?
$51K has been traded in total, $3K of it in the last 24 hours.
Prices as of . Informational only — PolyWatch is read-only analytics, not financial advice.
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