Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% before 2027? — live odds

Part of How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?· see all 4 outcomes →📲 Open in app

"Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% before 2027?" is trading at a 40% implied probability, with YES at 40¢ and NO at 60¢. $184K has changed hands so far, $1K of it in the past 24 hours, and the market is scheduled to resolve by January 1, 2027. PolyWatch tracks every odds move, whale trade and volume spike on this finance market in real time.

40%

implied probability

YES 40¢NO 60¢

recent price

-6¢ over the window

-6¢

24h change

$1K

24h volume

$184K

total volume

Jan 1, 2027

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

Volume spike
$60 traded — 192.5× the average
10m ago
Spread blowout
spread 0.036¢ vs 0.0019¢ normal
15m ago
High volatility
±38.2¢ swing band
16m ago
Volume spike
$10 traded — 32.1× the average
18m ago
Volume spike
$154 traded — 494× the average
31m ago
High volatility
±46.3¢ swing band
31m ago
Odds swing
10¢ → 31¢ (+20.8¢ in 15 min)
31m ago
High volatility
±11.3¢ swing band
1h ago
Odds swing
55¢ → 33¢ (-22.3¢ in 15 min)
2h ago
High volatility
±30¢ swing band
2h ago

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time. The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).

Quick answers

What are the current odds of "Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% before 2027?"?

The market currently prices YES at 40¢ and NO at 60¢, an implied probability of 40% that the answer is yes.

When does this market resolve?

This market is scheduled to resolve by January 1, 2027. The stated resolution source is https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025.