
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 6.0% before 2027? — live odds
"Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 6.0% before 2027?" is trading at a 6% implied probability, with YES at 6¢ and NO at 94¢. $91K has changed hands so far, $812 of it in the past 24 hours, and the market is scheduled to resolve by January 1, 2027. PolyWatch tracks every odds move, whale trade and volume spike on this finance market in real time.
6%
implied probability
recent price
0¢ over the window
0¢
24h change
$812
24h volume
$91K
total volume
Jan 1, 2027
resolves
Radar activity on this market
Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.
- 115d ago
High volatility
±18.9¢ swing band
- 115d ago
Odds swing
83¢ → 58¢ (-25.3¢ in 15 min)
- 115d ago
High volatility
±20.2¢ swing band
- 115d ago
Odds swing
94¢ → 25¢ (-69¢ in 15 min)
- 115d ago
High volatility
±24.6¢ swing band
- 118d ago
High volatility
±3.4¢ swing band
- 118d ago
Odds swing
69¢ → 84¢ (+15.1¢ in 15 min)
- 118d ago
High volatility
±28.3¢ swing band
- 118d ago
Odds swing
69¢ → 98¢ (+29.1¢ in 15 min)
- 118d ago
High volatility
±12.8¢ swing band
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time. The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
Quick answers
What are the current odds of "Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 6.0% before 2027?"?
The market currently prices YES at 6¢ and NO at 94¢, an implied probability of 6% that the answer is yes.
When does this market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve by January 1, 2027. The stated resolution source is https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025.
How much has been traded on this market?
$91K has been traded in total, $812 of it in the last 24 hours.
Prices as of . Informational only — PolyWatch is read-only analytics, not financial advice.
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