Will there be between 11 and 13 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026? — live odds

Part of How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?· see all 4 outcomes →📲 Open in app

"Will there be between 11 and 13 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?" is trading at a 16% implied probability, with YES at 16¢ and NO at 85¢. $421K has changed hands so far, $8 of it in the past 24 hours, and the market is scheduled to resolve by January 8, 2027. PolyWatch tracks every odds move, whale trade and volume spike on this science market in real time.

16%

implied probability

YES 16¢NO 85¢

recent price

-6¢ over the window

-6¢

24h change

24h volume

$421K

total volume

Jan 8, 2027

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

High volatility
±13.2¢ swing band
11d ago
High volatility
±4.3¢ swing band
11d ago
complete set arb
sum: 0.966 · edge: 0.024
26d ago
complete set arb
sum: 0.966 · edge: 0.024
26d ago
complete set arb
sum: 0.966 · edge: 0.024
26d ago
complete set arb
sum: 0.966 · edge: 0.024
26d ago
complete set arb
sum: 0.966 · edge: 0.024
26d ago
complete set arb
sum: 0.966 · edge: 0.024
26d ago
complete set arb
sum: 0.966 · edge: 0.024
26d ago
complete set arb
sum: 0.966 · edge: 0.024
26d ago

How this market resolves

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.

Quick answers

What are the current odds of "Will there be between 11 and 13 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?"?

The market currently prices YES at 16¢ and NO at 85¢, an implied probability of 16% that the answer is yes.

When does this market resolve?

This market is scheduled to resolve by January 8, 2027. The stated resolution source is https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef.