Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? — live odds
"Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?" is trading at a 19% implied probability, with YES at 19¢ and NO at 81¢. $1.1M has changed hands so far, $13K of it in the past 24 hours, and the market is scheduled to resolve by January 1, 2027. PolyWatch tracks every odds move, whale trade and volume spike on this tech market in real time.
19%
implied probability
recent price
+2¢ over the window
+2¢
24h change
$13K
24h volume
$1.1M
total volume
Jan 1, 2027
resolves
Radar activity on this market
Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.
- 11d ago
High volatility
±36.6¢ swing band
- 11d ago
High volatility
±24.3¢ swing band
- 33d ago
complete set arb
sum: 0.957 · edge: 0.033
- 74d ago
complete set arb
sum: 0.97 · edge: 0.02
- 84d ago
complete set arb
sum: 0.97 · edge: 0.02
- 102d ago
complete set arb
sum: 0.969 · edge: 0.021
- 102d ago
complete set arb
sum: 0.969 · edge: 0.021
- 102d ago
complete set arb
sum: 0.954 · edge: 0.036
- 102d ago
complete set arb
sum: 0.954 · edge: 0.036
- 102d ago
complete set arb
sum: 0.964 · edge: 0.026
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31, 2026, as of market close. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Quick answers
What are the current odds of "Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?"?
The market currently prices YES at 19¢ and NO at 81¢, an implied probability of 19% that the answer is yes.
When does this market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve by January 1, 2027.
How much has been traded on this market?
$1.1M has been traded in total, $13K of it in the last 24 hours.
Prices as of . Informational only — PolyWatch is read-only analytics, not financial advice.
Get alerted when this market moves
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