Will there be at least 4000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? — final odds

Resolved YES · January 1, 2027Final price 100¢ YES — the market gave this a 100% implied probability.

Part of Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?· see all 7 outcomes →📲 Open in app

"Will there be at least 4000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?" resolved YES on January 1, 2027 at a final price of 100¢ YES — a 100% implied probability — after $249K in total trading volume. The full odds history and the radar signals that moved it are below.

100%

implied probability

YES 100¢NO 0¢

recent price

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24h change

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24h volume

$249K

total volume

Jan 1, 2027

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

Odds swing
94¢ → 83¢ (-11¢ in 15 min)
49d ago
High volatility
±27.5¢ swing band
74d ago
Odds swing
89¢ → 78¢ (-11¢ in 15 min)
74d ago
High volatility
±17.8¢ swing band
74d ago
Odds swing
39¢ → 78¢ (+39¢ in 15 min)
74d ago
High volatility
±23.1¢ swing band
74d ago
High volatility
±27.9¢ swing band
116d ago
Odds swing
26¢ → 41¢ (+15¢ in 15 min)
116d ago
High volatility
±36.2¢ swing band
116d ago
Odds swing
41¢ → 98¢ (+57¢ in 15 min)
116d ago

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026 according to the CDC case counter between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used. Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.

Quick answers

How did "Will there be at least 4000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?" resolve?

This market resolved YES on January 1, 2027. Its final traded price was 100¢ YES.

What did the market predict?

Before settling, the market priced the YES outcome at 100¢ — an implied probability of 100%. Comparing final odds with outcomes across markets is how prediction-market accuracy is measured.